ROL
Rollins, Inc.
$33.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.8% above fair value
You pay
$33.45
Bear
$21.11
Fair
$30.75
Bull
$40.65
Bear
$21.11
-36.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$30.75
-8.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$40.65
+21.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
26.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.8%
vs 11.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$46.45
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $30.75 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $46.45 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions