ROL
Rollins, Inc.
$36.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.7% above fair value
You pay
$36.19
Bear
$21.11
Fair
$30.75
Bull
$40.65
Bear
$21.11
-41.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$30.75
-15.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$40.65
+12.3%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
28.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.8%
vs 11.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$49.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $30.75 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $49.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions