ROK
Rockwell Automation, Inc.
$432.59
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 276.0% above fair value
You pay
$432.59
Bear
$92.04
Fair
$115.05
Bull
$138.06
Bear
$92.04
-78.7%
$7.67 × 12x P/E
Fair
$115.05
-73.4%
$7.67 × 15x P/E
Bull
$138.06
-68.1%
$7.67 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
7.67$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
56.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$489.89
Divergence from AlphaVal
77%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.67, the base-case value is $115.05 per share. DDM cross-check: $154.03.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $154.03 (above our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $489.89 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples