ROK
Rockwell Automation, Inc.
$452.29
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 99.6% above fair value
You pay
$452.29
Bear
$181.30
Fair
$226.62
Bull
$271.95
Bear
$181.30
-59.9%
$8.30 × 12x P/E
Fair
$226.62
-49.9%
$8.30 × 15x P/E
Bull
$271.95
-39.9%
$8.30 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
54.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $464.75 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $226.62 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $150.74 (above our primary estimate by 21%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $464.75 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples