ROK
Rockwell Automation, Inc.
$468.67
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 101.6% above fair value
You pay
$468.67
Bear
$186.02
Fair
$232.52
Bull
$279.04
Bear
$186.02
-60.3%
$8.30 × 12x P/E
Fair
$232.52
-50.4%
$8.30 × 15x P/E
Bull
$279.04
-40.5%
$8.30 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
56.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $484.43 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $232.52 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $154.03 (above our primary estimate by 24%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $484.43 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples