ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd.
$29.96
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 67.2% below fair value

You pay $29.96
Bear $78.36
Fair $91.42
Bull $104.47
Bear $78.36 +161.5% $5.23 × 18x P/E
Fair $91.42 +205.1% $5.23 × 21x P/E
Bull $104.47 +248.7% $5.23 × 24x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 5.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.17 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $91.42 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $36.17 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 204% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples