ROG
Rogers Corporation
$135.13
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 80.7% above fair value
You pay
$135.13
Bear
$59.82
Fair
$74.78
Bull
$89.75
Bear
$59.82
-55.7%
$3.73 × 12x P/E
Fair
$74.78
-44.7%
$3.73 × 15x P/E
Bull
$89.75
-33.6%
$3.73 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
36.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.78 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $150.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples