ROG Rogers Corporation
$135.13
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 80.7% above fair value

You pay $135.13
Bear $59.82
Fair $74.78
Bull $89.75
Bear $59.82 -55.7% $3.73 × 12x P/E
Fair $74.78 -44.7% $3.73 × 15x P/E
Bull $89.75 -33.6% $3.73 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 36.2x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.78 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $150.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples