ROG Rogers Corporation
$125.52
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 172.4% above fair value

You pay $125.52
Bear $36.86
Fair $46.08
Bull $55.30
Bear $36.86 -70.6% $3.07 × 12x P/E
Fair $46.08 -63.3% $3.07 × 15x P/E
Bull $55.30 -55.9% $3.07 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.07$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 40.9x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (12 analysts) $150.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 69%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.07, the base-case value is $46.08 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $150.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples