ROCK
Gibraltar Industries, Inc.
$36.66
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.8% below fair value
You pay
$36.66
Bear
$39.00
Fair
$48.75
Bull
$58.50
Bear
$39.00
+6.4%
$3.25 × 12x P/E
Fair
$48.75
+33.0%
$3.25 × 15x P/E
Bull
$58.50
+59.6%
$3.25 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.25$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.25, the base-case value is $48.75 per share. DDM cross-check: $2.89.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $2.89 (below our primary estimate by 94%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples