ROAD
Construction Partners, Inc.
$110.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.7% above fair value
You pay
$110.90
Bear
$48.41
Fair
$99.24
Bull
$158.88
Bear
$48.41
-56.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$99.24
-10.5%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$158.88
+43.3%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
40.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.3%
vs 17.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$140.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $99.24 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 36% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $140.33 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions