RMD ResMed Inc.
$195.80
Platform & Compounding FCF 65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 33.9% below fair value

You pay $195.80
Bear $196.74
Fair $296.00
Bull $403.29
Bear $196.74 +0.5% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair $296.00 +51.2% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull $403.29 +106.0% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 17.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.3% vs 13.8% base

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $247.27 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $296.00 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $247.27 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions