RMBS Rambus Inc.
$142.98
Platform & Compounding FCF 85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 16.9% below fair value

You pay $142.98
Bear $85.73
Fair $172.01
Bull $292.48
Bear $85.73 -40.0% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair $172.01 +20.3% 25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull $292.48 +104.6% 32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (25% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 44.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $135.67 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $172.01 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $135.67 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions