RLX
RLX Technology Inc.
$1.76
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 70.4% below fair value
You pay
$1.76
Bear
$3.81
Fair
$5.94
Bull
$8.62
Bear
$3.81
+116.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.94
+237.6%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$8.62
+390.0%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
5.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-10.2%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.94 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1491 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions