RKT Rocket Companies, Inc.
$14.74
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 19.0% above fair value

You pay $14.74
Bear $9.90
Fair $12.39
Bull $14.86
Bear $9.90 -32.8% $0.67 × 12x P/E
Fair $12.39 -15.9% $0.67 × 15x P/E
Bull $14.86 +0.8% $0.67 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.50 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.39 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $19.50 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples