RIGL
Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$47.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.0% below fair value
You pay
$47.24
Bear
$103.79
Fair
$162.84
Bull
$229.72
Bear
$103.79
+119.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$162.84
+244.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$229.72
+386.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
8.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.4%
vs 15.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$67.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
143%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $162.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $67.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 143% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions