RIGL
Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$49.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.1% below fair value
You pay
$49.91
Bear
$102.81
Fair
$161.29
Bull
$227.53
Bear
$102.81
+106.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$161.29
+223.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$227.53
+355.9%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
9.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.4%
vs 15.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$67.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
141%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $161.29 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $67.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 141% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions