RHP
Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc.
$125.40
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.8% below fair value
You pay
$125.40
Bear
$139.14
Fair
$168.95
Bull
$198.77
Bear
$139.14
+11.0%
$7.64 FFO × 18x
Fair
$168.95
+34.7%
$7.64 FFO × 22x
Bull
$198.77
+58.5%
$7.64 FFO × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($7.64) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$134.88
Divergence from AlphaVal
25%
Summary
At $7.64 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $168.95 per share. Dividend yield: 3.8%.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $134.88 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 25% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify