RHP
Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc.
$127.22
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.3% below fair value
You pay
$127.22
Bear
$150.40
Fair
$182.63
Bull
$214.86
Bear
$150.40
+18.2%
$8.26 FFO × 18x
Fair
$182.63
+43.5%
$8.26 FFO × 22x
Bull
$214.86
+68.9%
$8.26 FFO × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($8.26) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
15.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$133.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
36%
Summary
At $8.26 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $182.63 per share. Dividend yield: 3.7%. DDM cross-check: $193.29.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $133.86 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify