RHLD
Resolute Holdings Management, Inc.
$112.73
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current FCF × Depressed Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.7% below fair value
You pay
$112.73
Bear
$92.89
Fair
$138.72
Bull
$184.56
Bear
$92.89
-17.6%
FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair
$138.72
+23.1%
Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull
$184.56
+63.7%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
4.9x
Summary
Stock is 52% below 52-week high. Using current FCF at a 6x depressed multiple, base-case value is $138.72. Wide scenario range: $92.89–$184.56.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case