RGNX
REGENXBIO Inc.
$7.40
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 76.6% below fair value
You pay
$7.40
Bear
$11.96
Fair
$31.62
Bull
$47.44
Bear
$11.96
+61.6%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$31.62
+327.3%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$47.44
+541.0%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
69%
Implied Market Multiple
2.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$19.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
61%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 0% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $31.62 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 20% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 0% to 28% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.
Gross margin of 88% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.60 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 61% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 54% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep