RGEN
Repligen Corporation
$184.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 312.1% above fair value
You pay
$184.17
Bear
$28.90
Fair
$44.69
Bull
$62.30
Bear
$28.90
-84.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$44.69
-75.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$62.30
-66.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
132.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
34.3%
vs 15.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$173.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
74%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $44.69 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $173.86 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions