RGEN
Repligen Corporation
$132.32
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 94.2% above fair value
You pay
$132.32
Bear
$44.22
Fair
$68.12
Bull
$94.77
Bear
$44.22
-66.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$68.12
-48.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$94.77
-28.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
106.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
31.3%
vs 15.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $152.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.12 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $152.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions