RGEN
Repligen Corporation
$115.06
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 62.3% above fair value
You pay
$115.06
Bear
$46.03
Fair
$70.91
Bull
$98.64
Bear
$46.03
-60.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$70.91
-38.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$98.64
-14.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
92.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $163.14 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.91 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $163.14 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions