REZI
Resideo Technologies, Inc.
$28.76
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.6% above fair value
You pay
$28.76
Bear
$20.07
Fair
$25.09
Bull
$30.11
Bear
$20.07
-30.2%
$1.42 × 12x P/E
Fair
$25.09
-12.8%
$1.42 × 15x P/E
Bull
$30.11
+4.7%
$1.42 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.09 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples