REZI
Resideo Technologies, Inc.
$16.61
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.3% below fair value
You pay
$16.61
Bear
$17.09
Fair
$21.36
Bull
$25.64
Bear
$17.09
+2.9%
$1.42 × 12x P/E
Fair
$21.36
+28.6%
$1.42 × 15x P/E
Bull
$25.64
+54.4%
$1.42 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.42$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$39.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
46%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.42, the base-case value is $21.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $39.25 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 47% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples