RES
RPC, Inc.
$6.07
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 63.1% above fair value
You pay
$6.07
Bear
$2.43
Fair
$3.72
Bull
$5.35
Bear
$2.43
-60.0%
FCF $42M × 10x
Fair
$3.72
-38.7%
FCF $55M × 13x
Bull
$5.35
-11.9%
FCF $67M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$7.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $3.72 per share. Range: $2.43 (bear) to $5.35 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.50 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential