RELY
Remitly Global, Inc.
$23.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.6% below fair value
You pay
$23.68
Bear
$20.75
Fair
$33.64
Bull
$49.07
Bear
$20.75
-12.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$33.64
+42.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$49.07
+107.2%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
24.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.7%
vs 17.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.64 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 228% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions