RELY
Remitly Global, Inc.
$25.32
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 32.2% below fair value
You pay
$25.32
Bear
$22.97
Fair
$37.32
Bull
$54.49
Bear
$22.97
-9.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$37.32
+47.4%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$54.49
+115.2%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
25.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.2%
vs 17.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$30.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $37.32 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 228% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions