RDWR
Radware Ltd.
$29.81
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 208.1% above fair value
You pay
$29.81
Bear
$8.10
Fair
$9.68
Bull
$11.25
Bear
$8.10
-72.8%
$0.45 × 18x P/E
Fair
$9.68
-67.5%
$0.45 × 22x P/E
Bull
$11.25
-62.3%
$0.45 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
0.45$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
66.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$30.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.45, the base-case value is $9.68 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $30.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples