RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
$282.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.0% above fair value
You pay
$282.26
Bear
$115.19
Fair
$212.23
Bull
$316.67
Bear
$115.19
-59.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$212.23
-24.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$316.67
+12.2%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
30.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.8%
vs 13.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$344.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $212.23 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $344.17 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions