RBC
RBC Bearings Incorporated
$498.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 132.6% above fair value
You pay
$498.52
Bear
$143.07
Fair
$214.29
Bull
$287.43
Bear
$143.07
-71.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$214.29
-57.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$287.43
-42.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
47.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.5%
vs 11.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$643.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $214.29 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $643.00 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions