RBA
RB Global, Inc.
$81.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.3% above fair value
You pay
$81.05
Bear
$45.03
Fair
$64.70
Bull
$83.18
Bear
$45.03
-44.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$64.70
-20.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$83.18
+2.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
22.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 8.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$134.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $64.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $134.50 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions