RBA
RB Global, Inc.
$116.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 57.9% above fair value
You pay
$116.59
Bear
$47.91
Fair
$73.83
Bull
$98.72
Bear
$47.91
-58.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$73.83
-36.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$98.72
-15.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
36.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.9%
vs 9.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $134.50 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $134.50 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions