RBA
RB Global, Inc.
$108.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 50.7% above fair value
You pay
$108.78
Bear
$47.44
Fair
$72.16
Bull
$95.66
Bear
$47.44
-56.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$72.16
-33.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$95.66
-12.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
34.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.2%
vs 8.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $134.50 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $72.16 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $134.50 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions