RAL Ralliant Corp
$61.71
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 37.8% above fair value

You pay $61.71
Bear $35.82
Fair $44.77
Bull $53.72
Bear $35.82 -42.0% $2.98 × 12x P/E
Fair $44.77 -27.5% $2.98 × 15x P/E
Bull $53.72 -12.9% $2.98 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.98$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.7x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (7 analysts) $69.20
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.98, the base-case value is $44.77 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $69.20 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples