R
Ryder System, Inc.
$240.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 77.7% below fair value
You pay
$240.31
Bear
$787.19
Fair
$1,076.69
Bull
$1,350.31
Bear
$787.19
+227.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$1,076.69
+348.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,350.31
+461.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
6.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-6.0%
vs 8.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$282.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
282%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1076.69 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 17% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $282.14 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 282% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions