QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
$171.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.0% below fair value
You pay
$171.65
Bear
$157.24
Fair
$248.91
Bull
$353.86
Bear
$157.24
-8.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$248.91
+45.0%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$353.86
+106.2%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
23.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.9%
vs 16.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (48 analysts)
$179.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $248.91 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $179.80 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions