QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
$159.43
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.6% below fair value
You pay
$159.43
Bear
$133.51
Fair
$211.35
Bull
$300.46
Bear
$133.51
-16.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$211.35
+32.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$300.46
+88.5%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
21.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.9%
vs 16.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $123.71 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $211.35 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $123.71 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 101% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions