QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
$196.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.4% below fair value
You pay
$196.70
Bear
$160.06
Fair
$253.39
Bull
$360.22
Bear
$160.06
-18.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$253.39
+28.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$360.22
+83.1%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
26.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.6%
vs 16.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (48 analysts)
$185.73
Divergence from AlphaVal
36%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $253.39 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $185.73 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions