QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
$102.37
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.1% below fair value
You pay
$102.37
Bear
$129.59
Fair
$205.14
Bull
$291.63
Bear
$129.59
+26.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$205.14
+100.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$291.63
+184.9%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.00 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $205.14 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $103.00 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 142% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions