QGEN
Qiagen N.V.
$43.86
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.3% above fair value
You pay
$43.86
Bear
$24.48
Fair
$30.60
Bull
$36.72
Bear
$24.48
-44.2%
$2.04 × 12x P/E
Fair
$30.60
-30.2%
$2.04 × 15x P/E
Bull
$36.72
-16.3%
$2.04 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.04$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$42.51
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.04, the base-case value is $30.60 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 203% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.51 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples