QGEN
Qiagen N.V.
$35.17
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.1% below fair value
You pay
$35.17
Bear
$29.34
Fair
$36.68
Bull
$44.02
Bear
$29.34
-16.6%
$2.20 × 12x P/E
Fair
$36.68
+4.3%
$2.20 × 15x P/E
Bull
$44.02
+25.2%
$2.20 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.17 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.68 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 203% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $45.17 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples