QGEN
Qiagen N.V.
$41.15
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.2% above fair value
You pay
$41.15
Bear
$29.09
Fair
$36.36
Bull
$43.63
Bear
$29.09
-29.3%
$2.20 × 12x P/E
Fair
$36.36
-11.6%
$2.20 × 15x P/E
Bull
$43.63
+6.0%
$2.20 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.12 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.36 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 203% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $44.12 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples