QGEN
Qiagen N.V.
$46.17
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 50.9% above fair value
You pay
$46.17
Bear
$24.48
Fair
$30.60
Bull
$36.72
Bear
$24.48
-47.0%
$2.04 × 12x P/E
Fair
$30.60
-33.7%
$2.04 × 15x P/E
Bull
$36.72
-20.5%
$2.04 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.04$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$43.01
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.04, the base-case value is $30.60 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 203% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $43.01 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples