QCRH
QCR Holdings, Inc.
$98.60
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.8% below fair value
You pay
$98.60
Bear
$75.06
Fair
$117.10
Bull
$142.33
Bear
$75.06
-23.9%
ROTCE 9.9% → 1.32x TBV
Fair
$117.10
+18.8%
ROTCE 13.2% → 2.06x TBV
Bull
$142.33
+44.4%
ROTCE 15.1% → 2.51x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.69x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $117.10 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $13.43 (89% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly