QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated
$238.16
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.4% above fair value
You pay
$238.16
Bear
$150.26
Fair
$223.89
Bull
$302.45
Bear
$150.26
-36.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$223.89
-6.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$302.45
+27.0%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
23.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $187.37 from 69 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $223.89 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 50% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $187.37 (from 69 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions