QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated
$172.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.4% below fair value
You pay
$172.39
Bear
$168.63
Fair
$251.20
Bull
$339.31
Bear
$168.63
-2.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$251.20
+45.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$339.31
+96.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.4%
vs 13.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (69 analysts)
$204.48
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $251.20 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 50% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions