PZZA
Papa John's International, Inc.
$18.88
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.2% below fair value
You pay
$18.88
Bear
$34.72
Fair
$42.16
Bull
$49.60
Bear
$34.72
+83.9%
$2.48 × 14x P/E
Fair
$42.16
+123.3%
$2.48 × 17x P/E
Bull
$49.60
+162.7%
$2.48 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
2.48$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$24.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.48, the base-case value is $42.16 per share. DDM cross-check: $81.59.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 176%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 204% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $81.59 (above our primary estimate by 94%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.75 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 70% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples