PXD
Pioneer Natural Resources Company
$269.62
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $93M × 8x
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $132M × 11x
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $172M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
324.0x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $0.00 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $0.00 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential