PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
$648.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.7% above fair value
You pay
$648.84
Bear
$257.02
Fair
$516.08
Bull
$844.50
Bear
$257.02
-60.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$516.08
-20.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$844.50
+30.2%
27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
69.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.6%
vs 20.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $724.77 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $516.08 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $724.77 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions