PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
$618.41
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.1% above fair value
You pay
$618.41
Bear
$244.83
Fair
$486.38
Bull
$792.60
Bear
$244.83
-60.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$486.38
-21.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$792.60
+28.2%
27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
59.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.4%
vs 20.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$802.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $486.38 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $802.08 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions