PUTRF
PTT Public Company Limited
$0.87
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.8% below fair value
You pay
$0.87
Bear
$1.00
Fair
$1.92
Bull
$3.03
Bear
$1.00
+15.5%
FCF $3818M × 12x
Fair
$1.92
+121.3%
FCF $4492M × 16x
Bull
$3.03
+249.0%
FCF $5166M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.3x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $1.92 per share. Range: $1.00 (bear) to $3.03 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($0.61) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Financial statements were converted from THB into USD using USDTHB at 0.0298 USD per THB.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential