PUMP
ProPetro Holding Corp.
$16.95
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 195.2% above fair value
You pay
$16.95
Bear
$1.51
Fair
$5.74
Bull
$11.08
Bear
$1.51
-91.1%
FCF $21M × 10x
Fair
$5.74
-66.1%
FCF $27M × 13x
Bull
$11.08
-34.6%
FCF $33M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
83.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.50 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.74 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -98%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential