PUMP
ProPetro Holding Corp.
$7.73
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 368.5% above fair value
You pay
$7.73
Bear
$0.47
Fair
$1.65
Bull
$3.14
Bear
$0.47
-94.0%
FCF $21M × 10x
Fair
$1.65
-78.7%
FCF $28M × 13x
Bull
$3.14
-59.4%
FCF $34M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$15.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
89%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $1.65 per share. Range: $0.47 (bear) to $3.14 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -94%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.33 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 58% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential