PUBM
PubMatic, Inc.
$16.29
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.4% below fair value
You pay
$16.29
Bear
$14.83
Fair
$20.22
Bull
$25.81
Bear
$14.83
-9.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$20.22
+24.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$25.81
+58.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
17.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.9%
vs 12.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$19.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $20.22 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions