PUBM
PubMatic, Inc.
$17.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 28.7% below fair value
You pay
$17.24
Bear
$16.58
Fair
$24.18
Bull
$32.52
Bear
$16.58
-3.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$24.18
+40.3%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$32.52
+88.6%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.4%
vs 14.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$19.89
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $24.18 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions