PTLO
Portillo's Inc.
$4.66
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.5% above fair value
You pay
$4.66
Bear
$3.78
Fair
$4.59
Bull
$5.40
Bear
$3.78
-18.9%
$0.27 × 14x P/E
Fair
$4.59
-1.5%
$0.27 × 17x P/E
Bull
$5.40
+15.9%
$0.27 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
0.27$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$5.69
Divergence from AlphaVal
19%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.27, the base-case value is $4.59 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples