PTLO
Portillo's Inc.
$4.59
Stable Earnings Power
50%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.1% below fair value
You pay
$4.59
Bear
$4.51
Fair
$5.47
Bull
$6.44
Bear
$4.51
-1.8%
$0.30 × 14x P/E
Fair
$5.47
+19.1%
$0.30 × 17x P/E
Bull
$6.44
+40.3%
$0.30 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.06 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $7.06 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples