PTGX
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.
$135.46
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 209.5% above fair value
You pay
$135.46
Bear
$38.58
Fair
$43.77
Bull
$48.99
Bear
$38.58
-71.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$43.77
-67.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$48.99
-63.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
377.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
51.8%
vs 10.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $128.80 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $128.80 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions