PTGX
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.
$99.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 145.4% above fair value
You pay
$99.19
Bear
$35.63
Fair
$40.42
Bull
$45.24
Bear
$35.63
-64.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$40.42
-59.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$45.24
-54.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
269.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $115.40 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $115.40 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions