PTGX
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.
$138.08
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 800.1% above fair value
You pay
$138.08
Bear
$13.52
Fair
$15.34
Bull
$17.16
Bear
$13.52
-90.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$15.34
-88.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$17.16
-87.6%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
387.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
52.2%
vs 10.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$177.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
91%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $15.34 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $177.25 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions