PTC
PTC Inc.
$148.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.4% above fair value
You pay
$148.23
Bear
$99.64
Fair
$130.68
Bull
$159.82
Bear
$99.64
-32.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$130.68
-11.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$159.82
+7.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
26.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $193.86 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $130.68 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $193.86 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions