PTC
PTC Inc.
$194.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.2% above fair value
You pay
$194.38
Bear
$99.14
Fair
$135.79
Bull
$171.48
Bear
$99.14
-49.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$135.79
-30.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$171.48
-11.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
29.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.2%
vs 9.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$199.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $135.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $199.67 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions