PTC
PTC Inc.
$141.02
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.2% above fair value
You pay
$141.02
Bear
$88.55
Fair
$117.31
Bull
$144.56
Bear
$88.55
-37.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$117.31
-16.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$144.56
+2.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
23.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.9%
vs 8.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$162.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $117.31 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $162.71 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions