PSX
Phillips 66
$209.85
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 150.1% above fair value
You pay
$209.85
Bear
$13.76
Fair
$83.91
Bull
$166.07
Bear
$13.76
-93.4%
FCF $2402M × 10x
Fair
$83.91
-60.0%
FCF $2729M × 13x
Bull
$166.07
-20.9%
FCF $3056M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
38.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $199.89 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.91 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -97%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $199.89 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 83% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential