PSX
Phillips 66
$290.07
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 365.3% above fair value
You pay
$290.07
Bear
$46.19
Fair
$62.34
Bull
$72.03
Bear
$46.19
-84.1%
FCF $4029M × 10x
Fair
$62.34
-78.5%
FCF $3597M × 13x
Bull
$72.03
-75.2%
FCF $3165M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
38.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$290.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
79%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $62.34 per share. Range: $46.19 (bear) to $72.03 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -84%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $290.40 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential