PSTL
Postal Realty Trust, Inc.
$23.69
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.4% above fair value
You pay
$23.69
Bear
$14.70
Fair
$18.59
Bull
$22.49
Bear
$14.70
-37.9%
$1.09 FFO × 13x
Fair
$18.59
-21.5%
$1.09 FFO × 17x
Bull
$22.49
-5.1%
$1.09 FFO × 21x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.09) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
21.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.25 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.59 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.25 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify