PSTL
Postal Realty Trust, Inc.
$22.31
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 30.5% above fair value
You pay
$22.31
Bear
$13.15
Fair
$17.09
Bull
$21.04
Bear
$13.15
-41.1%
$1.01 FFO × 13x
Fair
$17.09
-23.4%
$1.01 FFO × 17x
Bull
$21.04
-5.7%
$1.01 FFO × 21x
Adjust Assumptions
16.9x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.01) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
22.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$26.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
36%
Summary
At $1.01 FFO/share with a 17x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $17.09 per share. Dividend yield: 4.4%. DDM cross-check: $14.82.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.67 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify