PSTG
Everpure, Inc
$86.22
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 90.1% above fair value
You pay
$86.22
Bear
$30.27
Fair
$45.34
Bull
$62.82
Bear
$30.27
-64.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$45.34
-47.4%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$62.82
-27.1%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
106.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
33.7%
vs 16.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $86.00 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.34 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 256% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $86.00 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions