PSMT
PriceSmart, Inc.
$191.34
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.8% above fair value
You pay
$191.34
Bear
$130.47
Fair
$158.44
Bull
$186.39
Bear
$130.47
-31.8%
$4.82 × 30x P/E
Fair
$158.44
-17.2%
$4.82 × 37x P/E
Bull
$186.39
-2.6%
$4.82 × 43x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (37x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
39.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $158.44 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $83.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 112% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples