PRVA
Privia Health Group, Inc.
$22.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 48.4% below fair value
You pay
$22.79
Bear
$28.32
Fair
$44.13
Bull
$62.33
Bear
$28.32
+24.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$44.13
+93.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$62.33
+173.5%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
14.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.20 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.13 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $31.20 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 55% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions