PRVA
Privia Health Group, Inc.
$20.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 59.2% below fair value
You pay
$20.72
Bear
$31.95
Fair
$50.82
Bull
$72.91
Bear
$31.95
+54.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$50.82
+145.3%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$72.91
+251.9%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.3%
vs 17.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$27.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
86%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $50.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.33 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 86% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions