PRVA
Privia Health Group, Inc.
$26.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.6% below fair value
You pay
$26.90
Bear
$28.31
Fair
$44.53
Bull
$63.36
Bear
$28.31
+5.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$44.53
+65.5%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$63.36
+135.5%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.6%
vs 16.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.50 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.53 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $29.50 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions