PRVA
Privia Health Group, Inc.
$22.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.1% below fair value
You pay
$22.52
Bear
$31.52
Fair
$50.13
Bull
$71.93
Bear
$31.52
+40.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$50.13
+122.6%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$71.93
+219.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
14.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.0%
vs 17.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
79%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $50.13 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions