PRTA
Prothena Corporation plc
$9.83
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 62.9% below fair value
You pay
$9.83
Bear
$22.70
Fair
$26.48
Bull
$30.27
Bear
$22.70
+130.9%
$1.38 × 18x P/E
Fair
$26.48
+169.4%
$1.38 × 21x P/E
Bull
$30.27
+207.9%
$1.38 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.48 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples