PRTA Prothena Corporation plc
$8.83
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 66.7% below fair value

You pay $8.83
Bear $22.70
Fair $26.48
Bull $30.27
Bear $22.70 +157.1% $1.38 × 18x P/E
Fair $26.48 +199.9% $1.38 × 21x P/E
Bull $30.27 +242.8% $1.38 × 24x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.48 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples