PRLB
Proto Labs, Inc.
$97.28
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 167.2% above fair value
You pay
$97.28
Bear
$30.59
Fair
$36.41
Bull
$41.71
Bear
$30.59
-68.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$36.41
-62.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$41.71
-57.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
45.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.1%
vs 7.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$87.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $36.41 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 74% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $87.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions