PRKS
United Parks & Resorts Inc.
$46.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 40.9% above fair value
You pay
$46.88
Bear
$25.47
Fair
$33.28
Bull
$42.07
Bear
$25.47
-45.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$33.28
-29.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$42.07
-10.3%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
17.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.3%
vs 4.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.75 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.28 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $48.75 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions