PRKS
United Parks & Resorts Inc.
$33.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 45.1% below fair value
You pay
$33.88
Bear
$48.75
Fair
$61.70
Bull
$73.71
Bear
$48.75
+43.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$61.70
+82.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$73.71
+117.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.7%
vs 4.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$46.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $61.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $46.63 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions