PRG
PROG Holdings, Inc.
$33.46
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.4% below fair value
You pay
$33.46
Bear
$59.98
Fair
$74.97
Bull
$89.96
Bear
$59.98
+79.2%
$3.69 × 18x P/E
Fair
$74.97
+124.1%
$3.69 × 22x P/E
Bull
$89.96
+168.9%
$3.69 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $42.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 96% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples