PR
Permian Resources Corporation
$24.59
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 306.7% above fair value
You pay
$24.59
Bear
$1.00
Fair
$6.05
Bull
$12.77
Bear
$1.00
-95.9%
FCF $548M × 8x
Fair
$6.05
-75.4%
FCF $782M × 11x
Bull
$12.77
-48.1%
FCF $1017M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$27.45
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $6.05 per share. Range: $1.00 (bear) to $12.77 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -96%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.45 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential