PPL PPL Corporation
$36.32
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 21.0% above fair value

You pay $36.32
Bear $26.27
Fair $30.03
Bull $33.78
Bear $26.27 -27.7% $1.63 × 14x P/E
Fair $30.03 -17.3% $1.63 × 16x P/E
Bull $33.78 -7.0% $1.63 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.2x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.63 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.03 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $41.63 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples