PPL PPL Corporation
$35.41
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 18.8% above fair value

You pay $35.41
Bear $26.09
Fair $29.81
Bull $33.54
Bear $26.09 -26.3% $1.62 × 14x P/E
Fair $29.81 -15.8% $1.62 × 16x P/E
Bull $33.54 -5.3% $1.62 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.25 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.81 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $41.25 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples