PPC
Pilgrim's Pride Corporation
$29.43
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 63.5% below fair value
You pay
$29.43
Bear
$66.34
Fair
$80.55
Bull
$94.77
Bear
$66.34
+125.4%
$4.54 × 15x P/E
Fair
$80.55
+173.7%
$4.54 × 18x P/E
Bull
$94.77
+222.0%
$4.54 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.7x
4.54$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
130%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.54, the base-case value is $80.55 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 373% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 130% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples