PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation
$31.09
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 61.4% below fair value

You pay $31.09
Bear $66.34
Fair $80.55
Bull $94.77
Bear $66.34 +113.4% $4.54 × 15x P/E
Fair $80.55 +159.1% $4.54 × 18x P/E
Bull $94.77 +204.8% $4.54 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.7x
4.54$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.8x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (22 analysts) $36.67
Divergence from AlphaVal 120%

Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.54, the base-case value is $80.55 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 373% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.67 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 120% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples