POWL
Powell Industries, Inc.
$150.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.9% below fair value
You pay
$150.95
Bear
$101.20
Fair
$157.01
Bull
$221.24
Bear
$101.20
-33.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$157.01
+4.0%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$221.24
+46.6%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
33.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.8%
vs 16.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$284.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $157.01 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $284.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions